Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cave homered to right center (408 feet).12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–3
- 8Turner homered to left (389 feet).11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 8Stott homered to right (394 feet), Bohm scored and Harper scored.10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Bohm singled to center, Rojas scored, Schwarber to second.6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Schwarber singled to center, Realmuto scored, Rojas to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Turner homered to left (394 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Castellanos homered to right center (390 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 6Adams singled to left, Meneses scored, Garrett to third.0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Adams doubled to left, Smith scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Meneses singled to right, Thomas scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–32 | Road vs home | 28–3525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.