San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner singled to right, Marsh scored and Stott scored, Schwarber to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pederson doubled to left, Flores scored and Estrada scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Harper homered to right center (388 feet), Schwarber scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Flores grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- SF +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | SF: Kyle Harrison (no track record yet) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 35–246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.