New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stewart singled to left, Alonso scored.13–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play13–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–2
- 8Edman reached on infield single to third, Knizner scored.12–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking12–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 312–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 8Lindor reached on infield single to third, Mendick scored on throwing error by third baseman Motter, Stewart scored and Locastro scored on error, Lindor to second.12–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 7Alonso homered to center (466 feet), McNeil scored.9–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Vogelbach homered to right center (379 feet), Nimmo scored, Lindor scored and Alonso scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Arenado homered to left center (397 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Stewart homered to right center (412 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3McNeil doubled to right, Lindor scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +3 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–38 | Road vs home | 26–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.