Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spenser WatkinsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Edman homered to right center (424 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Butler homered to right center (437 feet), Soderstrom scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Knizner doubled to left, Walker scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Walker homered to left center (405 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Arenado homered to left (395 feet), Goldschmidt scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Goldschmidt doubled to center, Nootbaar scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 64%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- OAK +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 5.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +11 | OAK: Spenser Watkins (no track record yet) · STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +98 Elo | STL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–45 | Road vs home | 25–3226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.