St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duffy reached on infield single to third, Olivares scored, Blanco to second.5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Isbel singled to right, Duffy scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Edman homered to left (403 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Contreras singled to right, Nootbaar scored, Arenado to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Velázquez homered to left center (441 feet), Isbel scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Knizner scored, Goldschmidt to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Edman homered to left center (396 feet), O'Neill scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Fair odds
- STL -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.0 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +14 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 22–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–2 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.