St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Angel ZerpaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left center (461 feet), Gorman scored.8–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–12
- 8Duffy singled to left, Blanco scored and Isbel scored.6–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 7Perez singled to right, Massey scored, Perez out stretching at second.6–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 6Nootbaar doubled to right, Edman scored, Nootbaar thrown out at third.6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 5O'Neill homered to center (424 feet), Contreras scored.5–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 3Contreras doubled to left, Gorman scored, Nootbaar scored and Arenado scored.3–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 2Perez homered to right (373 feet).0–9
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 2Witt Jr. homered to left center (408 feet), Isbel scored and Garcia scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- KC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | +7 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Dylan Coleman (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +3 Elo | KC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 21–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.