Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walker tripled to right, Knizner scored, O'Neill scored and Nootbaar scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 7Nootbaar walked, Goldschmidt scored, O'Neill to second, Knizner to third.5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 45–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Brown singled to left, Allen scored and Gelof scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Gelof doubled to left, Butler scored, Allen to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Goldschmidt homered to left center (401 feet), Edman scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Ruiz homered to left center (382 feet), Allen scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Edman singled to right, Walker scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- OAK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 5.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +96 Elo | STL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–44 | Road vs home | 24–3227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.