Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Nimmo homered to center (387 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5McNeil hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 4Araúz homered to right center (394 feet), Ortega scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3McNeil singled to left, Lindor scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Hayes doubled to left, Joe scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Vogelbach homered to center (411 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Alonso doubled to left, Nimmo scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −14 | PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 29–2719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.