Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Luke MaileBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer singled to right, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to second.9–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, Benson scored, Friedl to third.8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 8Friedl singled to left, Fairchild scored, Benson to third.7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6McCutchen singled to left, Reynolds scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 36–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 6Hayes homered to center (409 feet).6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Maile homered to left center (410 feet), Fairchild scored and Benson scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -103
- CIN +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +13 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–26 | Road vs home | 28–3022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–5 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.