Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Fairchild grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stephenson scored, Hopkins out at second.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Fairchild hit a ground rule double, Hopkins scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Ramos singled to right, Votto scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 7Reynolds homered to right (405 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Peguero singled to right, Davis scored, Rodríguez to second.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (442 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Peguero homered to left center (390 feet).2–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Maile doubled to right, Benson scored and Ramos scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Andre Jackson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 29–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–6 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.