Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Triolo homered to left (385 feet), Peguero scored and Rodríguez scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Williams singled to center, Davis scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5McLain doubled to right, Benson scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, McLain scored, Votto to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −10 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +11 Elo | CIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3032–26 | Road vs home | 28–3123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–5 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.