Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4
- Casey LawrencePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soderstrom homered to center (454 feet).8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 6Gelof doubled to center, Ruiz scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Brown hit sacrifice fly to center, Rooker scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Gelof singled to left, Ruiz scored, Gelof to second.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Langeliers singled to right, J. Diaz scored, Bride to third.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1J. Diaz doubled to center, A. Díaz scored and C. Pérez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1C. Pérez singled to center, Gelof scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- OAK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +86 Elo | STL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3015–46 | Road vs home | 26–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.