New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Richie PalaciosBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios doubled to left, Burleson scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 7McNeil homered to right center (398 feet), Lindor scored and Alvarez scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Alvarez singled to right, Locastro scored, Lindor to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Lindor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Alonso out at second, Locastro to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3McNeil singled to center, Lindor scored, Alvarez to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Nimmo homered to center (411 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -113
- NYM +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +18 | NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +48 Elo | STL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 26th of 3025–38 | Road vs home | 26–3427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.