Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mets- DJ StewartBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ortega singled to center, McNeil scored, Narváez to second.3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Alonso homered to left center (389 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 6Williams singled to right, Joe scored, Rivas to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Stewart homered to right center (398 feet), Vogelbach scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Nimmo singled to left, Ortega scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Reynolds homered to left center (376 feet), Hayes scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Lindor singled to left, Narváez scored and Ortega scored, Lindor to second, Nimmo to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Stewart homered to right (387 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −12 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–34 | Road vs home | 30–2819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.