Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Liover PegueroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- DJ StewartBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Araúz homered to right (376 feet).7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Stewart homered to right (409 feet), Alvarez scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Reynolds tripled to right, Delay scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 7Delay doubled to right, Suwinski scored and Triolo scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Peguero scored, Triolo to second on passed ball by Alvarez, Suwinski to third on passed ball by Alvarez.4–1
- 7Peguero scored, Triolo to second on passed ball by Alvarez, Suwinski to third on passed ball by Alvarez.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Triolo hit by pitch, Joe scored, Suwinski to second, Peguero to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Suwinski walked, McCutchen scored, Peguero to second, Joe to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 42–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Peguero homered to left center (412 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Nimmo homered to right (392 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +16 Elo | NYM 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 30–2717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.