New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Locastro homered to center (419 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Burleson hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7O'Neill homered to left center (393 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Lindor doubled to left, Ortega scored, Nimmo to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Alonso homered to center (437 feet), McNeil scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Fair odds
- STL -108
- NYM +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −37 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +13 Elo | NYM 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–38 | Road vs home | 26–3325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.