St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey LawrencePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Williams doubled to left, Palacios scored.1–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Palacios doubled to center, Rodríguez scored and Joe scored.1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5Knizner homered to left (416 feet).1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Palacios homered to right (397 feet), Joe scored and Rodríguez scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Joe doubled to center, Hayes scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Peguero singled to right, Joe and McCutchen scored, Rodríguez to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Joe scored on Rom wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Rom.0–2
- 1Joe scored on Rom wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Rom.0–2
- 1Rodríguez reached on infield single to third, Reynolds scored, Joe to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | STL: Drew Rom (no track record yet) · PIT: Thomas Hatch (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +1 Elo | STL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 29–3223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–5 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.