Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Julien doubled to left, Solano scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Julien hit sacrifice fly to left, Solano scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- PIT +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −24 | PIT: Ryan Borucki: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–36 | Road vs home | 35–268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.