Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Andre JacksonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Farmer doubled to right, Correa scored, Polanco to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 7Polanco singled to right, Lewis scored, Correa to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Reynolds singled to center, Williams scored, Bae to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Solano singled to center, Wallner scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Taylor homered to left center (410 feet), Vázquez scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | PIT: Andre Jackson: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +62 Elo | MIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–35 | Road vs home | 34–258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.