Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler homered to right center (416 feet).8–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 9Polanco homered to center (429 feet), Julien scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Greene hit sacrifice fly to center, Baddoo scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Carpenter homered to left (379 feet).7–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Torkelson homered to left (405 feet).6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Vierling grounded out to second, Greene scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Greene tripled to center, Baddoo scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 3Torkelson homered to left center (432 feet).3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Greene homered to center (448 feet), Baddoo scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +10 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +55 Elo | MIN 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 34–247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 7–5 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.