Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Miguel CabreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson homered to left (416 feet).3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Wallner homered to center (450 feet), Kepler scored, Lewis scored and Correa scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Lewis singled to left, Polanco scored, Kepler to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Cabrera homered to left center (438 feet), Carpenter scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −1 | DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +60 Elo | MIN 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 33–248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 7–4 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.