Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Polanco singled to right, Taylor scored, Julien to second.7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9McCutchen homered to center (438 feet), Delay scored and Bae scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Polanco hit sacrifice fly to center, Vázquez scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Bae doubled to left, Peguero scored, Delay to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Hayes singled to left, Bae scored, Hayes to second, McCutchen to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6McCutchen singled to center, Delay scored and Peguero scored, Bae to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Taylor singled to center, Vázquez scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Kepler doubled to right, Polanco scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +69 Elo | MIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–36 | Road vs home | 35–257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.