New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez singled to left, McNeil scored, Alvarez to second, Alonso safe at third on fielding error by left fielder O'Neill, Alonso thrown out at home.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 7Palacios singled to center, Contreras scored and Walker scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Walker doubled to right, Arenado scored, Contreras to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Contreras singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Goldschmidt homered to left (386 feet), Burleson scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Alonso homered to left (423 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Goldschmidt singled to center, Edman scored, Burleson to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Araúz singled to center, Ortega scored, Araúz to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +16 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–38 | Road vs home | 26–3628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.