St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Richie PalaciosBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Joe doubled to right, Reynolds scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 9Winn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Knizner scored, Walker out at second.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Delay grounded out to shortstop, Peguero scored, Williams to second, Bae to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Hayes homered to right center (392 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Joe hit by pitch, Delay scored, McCutchen to second, Hayes to third.5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 2Arenado doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored and Burleson scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Palacios doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored and Arenado scored, Contreras to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Goldschmidt singled to center, Burleson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +3 Elo | STL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 31–3222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–7 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.