St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Richie PalaciosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Burleson singled to left, Walker scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Contreras doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5McCutchen homered to left center (405 feet), Reynolds scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Reynolds doubled to right, Rivas scored and Williams scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Bae grounded out to first, Capra scored, Williams to second, Rivas to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 11–1
- 5Palacios homered to right center (406 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Joe singled to left, Bae scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −32 | −1 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +39 Elo | PIT 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 30–3222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–6 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.