St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4
- Drew RomPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper singled to left, Turner scored, Castellanos to second.0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Turner hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Schwarber homered to center (436 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −9 | STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +78 Elo | PHI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 38–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.