St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Luken BakerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marsh homered to right center (400 feet), Stott scored and Bohm scored.1–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 7Castellanos homered to left (363 feet), Turner scored and Harper scored.1–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 7Turner singled to left, Schwarber scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Harper singled to right, Turner scored, Harper out stretching at second.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Stott homered to right center (378 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Harper singled to right, Cave scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Turner grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Marsh scored, Schwarber out at second, Cave to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -126
- STL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +2 | STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +50 Elo | PHI 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 37–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.