San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto homered to center (398 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Machado singled to left, Kim scored, Soto to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Santana doubled to right, Contreras scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Contreras doubled to left, Yelich scored on error and Taylor scored, Contreras safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Gamel.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Monasterio scored on throwing error by catcher Campusano, Taylor stole second.1–2
- 5Monasterio singled to left, Canha scored, Turang to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Bogaerts homered to left center (418 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -120
- SD +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | SD: Pedro Avila: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.38th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–35 | Road vs home | 36–278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.