Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Turang reached on infield single to third, Adames scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 27–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 17–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 10Adames singled to center, Santana scored on error, Adames safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Taylor.7–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 37–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 10Jeffers reached on infield single to pitcher, Gallo scored, Kepler to second.7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Taylor homered to left center (409 feet).6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Adames homered to center (426 feet), Santana scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Farmer homered to center (391 feet).6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Taylor homered to left (368 feet), Jeffers scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Contreras homered to center (381 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–35 | Road vs home | 34–279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.