Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras grounded out to second, Duran scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Santana singled to center, Taylor scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Taylor tripled to right, Caratini scored and Turang scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Yelich doubled to right, Taylor scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Seager homered to center (436 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Tellez walked, Yelich scored, Adames to second, Canha to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 42–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Adames hit by pitch, Taylor scored, Canha to second, Yelich to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- MIL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +15 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +78 Elo | TEX 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 42–233rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.