Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Mark CanhaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taylor homered to center (397 feet).1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Smith singled to center, Freeman scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Betts scored on error, Freeman safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Wiemer, Freeman safe at second on error.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Martinez reached first base on catcher's interference, Betts to home, Smith to second, Freeman to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Catcher's Interference1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Rojas homered to left (391 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Canha homered to left (355 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Rosario grounded out to third, Betts scored, Martinez to second, Smith to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +22 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 39–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–3 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.