Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario homered to left (372 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Outman homered to right (387 feet), Hernández scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Smith homered to center (417 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Tovar homered to center (426 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Fair odds
- LAD -143
- COL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +126 Elo | LAD 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–41 | Road vs home | 36–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–6 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.