Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored, Betts to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Freeman hit sacrifice fly, Peralta scored, Freeman to first on fielding error by left fielder Profar, Betts to second, Rojas to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Betts hit by pitch, Taylor scored, Rojas to second, Peralta to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Peralta doubled to right, Outman scored, Taylor to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Rosario grounded into fielder's choice to third, Betts scored, Smith out at second.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Rodgers reached on infield single to third, Tovar scored on throwing error by third baseman Hernández, Rodgers to second, McMahon safe at third on error.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Freeman singled to center, Peralta scored, Betts to second, Rojas to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Fair odds
- LAD -137
- COL +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.8 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −13 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +86 Elo | LAD 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–40 | Road vs home | 35–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–5 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.