Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández doubled to left, Peralta scored, Taylor to third.8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Betts homered to left center (395 feet).7–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Cronenworth homered to right center (397 feet).6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Sánchez homered to left (433 feet).6–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 2Freeman homered to right (371 feet), Rojas scored and Betts scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Barnes reached on bunt single to first, Hernández scored, Rojas to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Rosario homered to right (335 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −16 | LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Rich Hill: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +4 Elo | SD 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 28–2619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 6–2 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.