Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grisham singled to left, Cooper scored and Cronenworth scored, Sánchez to third.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Cronenworth singled to left, Machado scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Machado singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored and Soto scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Soto reached on infield single to second, Kim scored and Sánchez scored, Soto to second, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Freeman singled to left, Betts scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Machado homered to left center (419 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Smith homered to left (368 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -103
- LAD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 27–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 6–1 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.