Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto homered to left center (371 feet).10–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 9Taylor singled to center, Smith scored.10–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–4
- 9Peralta hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 9Smith doubled to center, Betts scored, Freeman to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 8Grisham singled to right, Cronenworth scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Rosario singled to right, Heyward scored and Taylor scored, Rojas to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 8Martinez walked, Peralta scored, Taylor to second, Heyward to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 45–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 8Taylor walked, Betts scored, Heyward to second, Peralta to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 44–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Fair odds
- SD -103
- LAD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +1 Elo | LAD 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 27–2519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 5–1 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.