Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elehuris MonteroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy walked, Heyward scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 41–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Muncy homered to right (375 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Montero homered to left center (396 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +21 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +115 Elo | LAD 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–39 | Road vs home | 34–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–4 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.