Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Canha scored, Monasterio safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Tovar.6–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Canha hit a ground rule double, Contreras scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 16–5
- 10Tovar doubled to left, Profar to third. Profar scored, Tovar to third on fielding error by left fielder Canha.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 7Tucker scored on error, Profar safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Turang, Wynns to second.5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Monasterio homered to left center (395 feet).4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Adames homered to left (414 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Yelich singled to center, Taylor scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Taylor doubled to left, Turang scored and Monasterio scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Castro singled to right, McMahon scored and Jones scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Jones doubled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Profar homered to right center (374 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Fair odds
- MIL -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +2 | COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +86 Elo | MIL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–38 | Road vs home | 32–2714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 4–1 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.