Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frelick homered to right center (391 feet), Yelich scored and Contreras scored.1–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 8Taylor homered to right center (357 feet).1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Monasterio singled to right, Frelick scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Frelick doubled to left, Contreras scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Contreras doubled to right, Yelich scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Contreras singled to center, Taylor scored and Yelich scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Taylor singled to left, Anderson scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Turang homered to right center (383 feet), Frelick scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -126
- COL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +57 Elo | MIL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–37 | Road vs home | 31–2613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–0 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.