Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jones hit sacrifice fly to left, Tucker scored.7–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 10McMahon walked, B. Doyle scored, Tovar to second, Tucker to third.6–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 46–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 10Tovar walked, Toglia scored, Tucker to second, B. Doyle to third.5–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 45–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 14–3
- 10Tucker walked, Castro scored, B. Doyle to second, Toglia to third.4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 44–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Monasterio homered to left (374 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Jones homered to right (368 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Díaz homered to left (404 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Canha doubled to right, Anderson scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Contreras homered to left (425 feet).1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -131
- COL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +14 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +94 Elo | MIL 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–38 | Road vs home | 32–2613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–1 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.