Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Campusano homered to left center (396 feet).13–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–7
- 6Campusano singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Campusano out stretching at second.13–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 213–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging13–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul13–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 113–5
- 6Peralta hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.13–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 112–5
- 6Muncy doubled to right, Rojas scored and Freeman scored, Smith to third.12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–5
- 6Smith singled to right, Outman scored, Freeman to second, Rojas to third.10–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 6Hernández homered to left center (396 feet).9–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 4Betts homered to left center (396 feet), Hernández scored, Outman scored and Rojas scored.8–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Rojas singled to center, Heyward scored, Outman to second, Hernández to third.4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Heyward doubled to right, Muncy scored and Peralta scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Peralta doubled to right, Freeman scored, Muncy to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Kim scored and Grisham scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Fair odds
- SD -101
- LAD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +11 Elo | LAD 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 28–2720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 7–2 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.