Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peralta singled to right, Freeman scored and Smith scored, Muncy to third.2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- ARI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +15 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 5th of 3032–26 | Road vs home | 28–2921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 4–5 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.