Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to right, Thomas scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 9Thomas tripled to right, Perdomo scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Betts singled to center, Outman scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Walker singled to center, Carroll scored, Pham to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Pham singled to right, C. Kelly scored, Carroll to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Muncy hit sacrifice fly to left, Freeman scored, Smith to second.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Betts doubled to left, Rosario scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 11 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Hernández doubled to left, Peralta scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- ARI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +31 Elo | LAD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3031–26 | Road vs home | 28–2820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–5 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.