Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andrus singled to center, Pérez scored and Remillard scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pérez doubled to center, Vaughn scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 27–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 9Yelich singled to left, Monasterio scored and Turang scored, Taylor to second.7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Santana homered to center (398 feet), Yelich scored and Contreras scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Monasterio doubled to left, Adames scored, Canha to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, Frelick scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -103
- CHW +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +16 Elo | MIL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 25–3226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.