Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Canha doubled to left, Turang scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Vaughn grounded out to second, Jiménez scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Contreras reached on infield single to pitcher, Caratini scored and Wiemer scored on throwing error by pitcher Bummer, Contreras to second, Yelich safe at third on error.6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Adames singled to left, Santana scored and Frelick scored, Adames to second.4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 4Anderson singled to center, Colás scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Jiménez homered to left center (419 feet), Benintendi scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Caratini homered to center (406 feet).2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Grandal hit sacrifice fly to left, Jiménez scored.1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- CHW +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +15 Elo | MIL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 25–3024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.