Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras singled to center, Taylor scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Taylor doubled to left, Canha scored and Monasterio scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 6Moncada homered to center (430 feet).0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Andrus grounded out to first, Sheets scored, Colás to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +2 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 25–3125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.