Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Santana homered to left (442 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Betts singled to left, Outman scored, Rojas to second.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Rojas singled to left, Hernández scored, Outman to second.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Hernández singled to center, Muncy scored and Martinez scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Martinez doubled to left, Smith scored, Muncy to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Rojas grounded out to shortstop, Peralta scored, Heyward to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Yelich scored, Contreras out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Fair odds
- LAD -122
- MIL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +73 Elo | LAD 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 38–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–2 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.