Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4
- Jon GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thaiss homered to center (450 feet).2–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Ohtani homered to center (437 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 65%
- Fair odds
- TEX -131
- LAA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.0 – 5.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +4 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +105 Elo | TEX 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 42–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 4–5 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.