Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- C.J. CronBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve singled to left, Dubón scored, Peña to second, Singleton to third.3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–11
- 6Drury singled to left, Rengifo scored, Ohtani to second.3–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 4Maldonado singled to left, Singleton scored and Peña scored.2–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 4Peña doubled to left, Diaz scored, Singleton to third.2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 3Singleton homered to right (389 feet), Dubón scored.2–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Rengifo reached on infield single to second, Wallach scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Maldonado scored, Bregman out at second.1–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 2Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Peña scored, Altuve out at second, Maldonado to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Singleton homered to right (390 feet), Diaz scored and Dubón scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Cron homered to left center (376 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +9 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +70 Elo | HOU 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 31–2513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–7 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.