Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker homered to right center (403 feet), Singleton scored, Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Peña singled to left, Tucker scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 4McCann hit sacrifice fly to center, Westburg scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Tucker singled to right, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second, Bregman to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Rutschman homered to left center (413 feet), McCann scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2McCann grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Urías scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Mountcastle homered to center (472 feet), Rutschman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- HOU +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +30 Elo | BAL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–24 | Road vs home | 35–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.